Overview
·
Mon 17 Aug 2026
Retired lanes - near-off order experiments (OUT, data to 2026-08-03)
PLACE-vs-WIN paper (prospective v1) — execution A/B
limit: 1670 fills, -121.8u (-7.29%/fill) | realized edge -7.90pp/order (n=6360) | 08-03: 158f -24.0u (16p) · 08-02: 105f -13.1u · 08-01: 202f +12.4u (12p) · 07-31: 182f -8.7u · 07-30: 136f +3.7u (11p) · 07-29: 174f -15.1u (6p) · 07-28: 167f -20.1u
bsp (SP exec): 5177 fills, -72.9u (-1.41%/fill) | realized edge -10.44pp/order (n=5150) | 08-03: 643f +8.3u (16p) · 08-02: 456f -26.3u · 08-01: 756f -5.3u (12p) · 07-31: 718f -52.9u · 07-30: 632f +31.1u (11p) · 07-29: 669f +45.0u (6p) · 07-28: 570f -37.1u
Betfair racecardfresh· 2026-08-17T20:36+00:00
engine predictionsfailed· run_live_day failed
picksfailed· run_live_day failed
Daily volumemedian 55 picks/day · quiet = card mix, check = pipeline
| date | scored | picks | bets | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 45 | 177 | 399 | ok |
| 2026-08-21 | 25 | 77 | 323 | ok |
| 2026-08-20 | 18 | 69 | 301 | ok |
| 2026-08-19 | 32 | 157 | 568 | ok |
| 2026-08-18 | 10 | 55 | 215 | ok |
| 2026-08-09 | 4 | 28 | 21 | ok |
| 2026-08-08 | 55 | 67 | 0 | ok |
| 2026-07-13 | 101 | 13 | 7 | quiet |
| 2026-07-11 | 56 | 55 | 52 | ok |
| 2026-07-10 | 35 | 34 | 23 | ok |
Today
2026-08-17Bankroll
£42,284
P&L · today
£0
P&L · 7 day
£0
Bets · today
0
Pending
0
Families
P&L · 7 day
No P&L history yet.
Scheduled tasks
| run_forecast_paper | 2026-08-22T22:05:01+00:00 | → - |
| deploy_dashboard | 2026-08-22T22:05:01+00:00 | → - |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T22:04:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T22:02:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T22:00:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:58:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:56:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:54:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:52:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:50:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:48:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:46:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:44:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:42:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:40:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:38:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:36:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| deploy_dashboard | 2026-08-22T21:35:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:34:01+00:00 | → 0 |
| run_bsp_place_settle | 2026-08-22T21:32:01+00:00 | → 0 |
Placed Bets
paper holdout ledger · real placed activitySettled bets
2,128
Open bets
0
Stale bets
12
Total staked
£993,573
Settled P&L
-£8,477
Settled ROI
-0.9%
By date
| Date | Bets | Back | Lay | Staking | Stake | Settled P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 399 | 0 | 399 | FLAT_LIABILITY(250) | £199,500 | £854 | 393 settled / 6 stale |
| 2026-08-21 | 323 | 0 | 323 | FLAT_LIABILITY(250) | £161,500 | £392 | 323 settled |
| 2026-08-20 | 301 | 0 | 301 | FLAT_LIABILITY(250) | £150,500 | £814 | 295 settled / 6 stale |
| 2026-08-19 | 568 | 0 | 568 | FLAT_LIABILITY(250) | £284,000 | -£2,925 | 568 settled |
| 2026-08-18 | 215 | 0 | 215 | FLAT_LIABILITY(250) | £107,500 | £103 | 210 settled / 5 void |
| 2026-08-10 | 31 | 0 | 31 | FLAT_LIABILITY(250) | £15,500 | £432 | 31 settled |
| 2026-08-09 | 21 | 0 | 21 | FLAT_LIABILITY(100) | £10,500 | -£225 | 21 settled |
| 2026-07-13 | 7 | 7 | 0 | FLAT(200), FLAT(422.606), FLAT(512.71) | £1,923 | -£547 | 7 settled |
| 2026-07-12 | 31 | 21 | 10 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(200), FLAT(337.574), FLAT_LIABILITY(426.524), FLAT_LIABILITY(500), FLAT_LIABILITY(65.6183) | £8,316 | -£3,062 | 31 settled |
| 2026-07-11 | 52 | 42 | 10 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(200), FLAT(328.333), FLAT(337.574), FLAT(422.606), FLAT(440.948), FLAT(507.358), FLAT(512.71), FLAT_LIABILITY(436.768), FLAT_LIABILITY(500), FLAT_LIABILITY(65.6183) | £16,431 | -£4,881 | 52 settled |
| 2026-07-10 | 23 | 19 | 4 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(200), FLAT(337.574), FLAT_LIABILITY(65.6183) | £5,632 | £902 | 23 settled |
| 2026-07-09 | 27 | 22 | 5 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(200), FLAT_LIABILITY(65.6183) | £5,795 | -£797 | 26 settled / 1 void |
| 2026-07-08 | 20 | 17 | 3 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(337.574), FLAT(422.606), FLAT(512.71), FLAT_LIABILITY(426.524), FLAT_LIABILITY(500) | £4,834 | -£569 | 19 settled / 1 void |
| 2026-07-07 | 9 | 9 | 0 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(422.606), FLAT(512.71) | £1,770 | £1,160 | 9 settled |
| 2026-07-06 | 11 | 10 | 1 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(422.606), FLAT(512.71), FLAT_LIABILITY(426.524) | £2,770 | -£1,350 | 11 settled |
| 2026-07-05 | 30 | 24 | 6 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(178.823), FLAT(337.574), FLAT_LIABILITY(500), FLAT_LIABILITY(65.6183) | £6,721 | -£605 | 30 settled |
| 2026-07-04 | 34 | 28 | 6 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(178.823), FLAT(337.574), FLAT_LIABILITY(426.524), FLAT_LIABILITY(500), FLAT_LIABILITY(65.6183) | £8,862 | -£403 | 34 settled |
| 2026-07-03 | 45 | 37 | 8 | FLAT(121.074), FLAT(178.823), FLAT(337.574), FLAT(422.606), FLAT(512.71), FLAT_LIABILITY(436.768), FLAT_LIABILITY(65.6183) | £10,640 | £2,228 | 45 settled |
Model Watch
rank-1 expected vs actual (calibrated probabilities -- what the book bets on)Pick calibration
| Selections | Picks | Expected | Actual | Actual rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN picks | 930 | 188.3 | 189 | 20.3% |
| PLACE picks | 1,081 | 432.7 | 95 | 8.8% |
Races
0
Dogs
0
Results joined
0/0
Rank-1 resulted
0/0
Expected rank-1 wins
0.0 (raw)
Actual rank-1 wins
0/0
Expected top-2
0.0 (raw)
Actual top-2
0/0
Pearson win
-
Pearson place
-
Spearman rank
-
Race Rows
TimeTrackRank-1 DogTrap
P(win)P(top2)FinishResult
Predictions not run.
Rank vs Finish
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rank-1 Strike By Trap
- No settled rank-1 rows.
WIN
exchange · Betfair single-runner win marketsSingle-runner WIN bets backed on the Betfair exchange at the Betfair Starting Price (BSP).
Exchange · BSPexchange_loc
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0
P&L
£0
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | ||||||||||||
Exchange · lay favouriteexchange_lay_fav
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0.00
P&L
£0.00
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | Liability | BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | |||||||||||||
PLACE
exchange · Betfair top-2 place marketsSingle-runner PLACE bets on the Betfair exchange (BSP back + lay-the-favourite).
Exchange · BSPexchange_loc
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0
P&L
£0
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | Place BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | ||||||||||||
Exchange · lay favouriteexchange_lay_fav
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0.00
P&L
£0.00
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | Liability | Place BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | |||||||||||||
AUS WIN
AU exchange - Betfair win marketsAustralian Betfair Exchange WIN paper runtime.
AU Exchange BACKau_exchange_back
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0
P&L
£0
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | ||||||||||||
AU Exchange LAYau_exchange_lay
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0.00
P&L
£0.00
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | Liability | BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | |||||||||||||
AUS PLACE
AU exchange - Betfair place marketsAustralian Betfair Exchange PLACE paper runtime.
AU Exchange BACKau_exchange_back
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0
P&L
£0
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | Place BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | ||||||||||||
AU Exchange LAYau_exchange_lay
Picks
0
Settled
0/0
Wins
0
Avg finish
-
Stake
£0.00
P&L
£0.00
ROI
-
| Time | Track | Dog | Trap | Edge | Matched Price | Stake | Liability | Place BSP | SP | T- Price | Finish | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this channel. | |||||||||||||